SEB CFO Survey: Baltic companies regain confidence in growth

This year, Baltic entrepreneurs' opinion of the business environment for the coming year has improved significantly, according to SEB survey of CFOs at large Baltic companies. 49% of CFOs in Latvia, 44% in Estonia, and 58% in Lithuania are positive about the business environment, which are the highest figures in all three countries since 2022. Entrepreneurs cite uncertainty and rising costs as the main risks to development.

“A survey of financial directors shows that Baltic companies have regained confidence in their development prospects. Baltic entrepreneurs believe that now is the right time to take on additional risk, demonstrating their readiness to take steps to expand their businesses. There has been a significant increase in the number of entrepreneurs who would be willing to invest not only in their home country, but also abroad. Given the prevailing uncertainty and constantly changing situation in the world, the confidence of Baltic companies demonstrates our readiness and ability to adapt to change and benefit from it by investing in innovation and development in a timely manner," survey data comments Ints Krasts, SEB board member and head of large corporates.

Business growth opportunities reflect economic developments

The most positive outlook on growth opportunities over the next 12 months is held by CFOs in Lithuania, where 58% of respondents rate business growth conditions as good or very good. In Latvia, 49% of respondents hold this view, while in Estonia the figure is 44%. When assessing CFOs' opinions on the financial situation of their companies, it can be seen that in Lithuania and Latvia, almost 80% of companies rate it as good or very good, while in Estonia, 64% give this assessment. 

This assessment largely reflects developments in the Baltic economies – Lithuania's economy has grown the fastest (GDP growth of 2.7% is forecast for this year) and growth forecasts for next year are also higher – GDP growth of 3.1%. Latvia's GDP will grow by 1% to 2% this year, while Estonia's will slightly exceed 1%, but next year's growth could approach Lithuania's level.

Priorities – digitization, greater capacity, and new products

When asked about their main priorities for the coming year, CFOs in all Baltic countries cited digitization, automation, and investment in innovation as the most important (three-quarters of companies in Latvia and Estonia cited this as a priority, while 51% of respondents in Lithuania did so). Opinions differ on the next priorities: while in Lithuania the second priority (47% of companies) is investment in capacity expansion, in Latvia (47% of companies) it is the introduction of new products or services, while in Estonia (52% of companies) cost reduction seems to be more important. This is also a fairly important task for entrepreneurs in Latvia (46%) and Lithuania (40%).

When assessing their ability to strengthen their companies against various external challenges, entrepreneurs mention the need to improve capital structure and liquidity (a priority in Latvia and Estonia), as well as to diversify sales markets and supply options (a priority in Lithuania). Increasing investment is also an important factor in this context in all Baltic countries.

Desire to invest abroad is growing

CFOs cite their home country as the main investment target – 56% of companies in Estonia, 49% in Latvia, and 47% in Lithuania. However, this year has seen a significant increase in companies' ambitions to invest abroad – 16% of companies in Lithuania, 15% in Estonia and 14% in Latvia are ready to do so. This is the largest number of companies in recent years that are willing to consider investing outside their home country. Given the decline in interest rates, the number of companies in Lithuania and Estonia that would like to use their free funds to cover liabilities has decreased.

When it comes to investments, CFOs also evaluated various types of capital raising. Banks are the main source of capital in all Baltic countries (84% of companies in Lithuania, 83% in Estonia, and 76% in Latvia). The opinion of entrepreneurs on capital raising has been influenced by the rapid growth in the volume of corporate bond issues in the Baltic countries, especially in Latvia, where 8% mention bonds as an important form of capital raising.

Where do you see the greatest risks?

Although the assessment of development opportunities for the coming year has become more optimistic overall, geopolitical and foreign trade uncertainty, as well as declining demand, pose a serious threat to growth. This factor is the biggest concern among Latvian CFOs (68%) and is the second biggest threat to growth in Lithuania (47%) and Estonia (68%). The issue of costs also remains relevant – rising costs, particularly due to wage increases and limited opportunities to increase end prices, are putting significant pressure on companies' profit margins. This is cited as the main threat to development by CFOs in Estonia (74%) and Lithuania (61%).

The best way to mitigate the potential impact of these risks is to invest in the company's competitiveness, so concerns about the availability of investment are understandable. This factor was highlighted as a threat by 22% of companies in Lithuania, while companies in Estonia and Latvia are relatively more concerned about the spread of cyber risks.

*SEB conducts an annual survey of CFOs of the largest companies in the Baltics, asking them for their forecasts on the business environment, key challenges, and other issues. The survey was conducted in September 2025 and involved 312 companies from Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. SEB has been conducting such surveys since 2014.